Category: Articles

Two dice are thrown. To calculate the score the number of spots on the uppermost faces are added.

Reba sits quietly at the baccarat table, fingering an old, worn silver coin her father had given her many years ago. Though she loses more often than she wins, she still considers the coin her lucky charm in terms of betting. Tonight, it is working. She has won five consecutive bets.

The shoe containing the cards is offered to her. She pulls the shoe close to the rail and suddenly flips the silver dollar. She watches intently as it lands, heads up, on the green felt layout in front of her. Sliding several chips up to the area designated “BANKER”, she proceeds to deal herself another winner. This is a rather unorthodox and less than scientific system, but it serves her well.

Baccarat is a game of streaks. Whether it is several Bank hands in a row or many Player hands, money is made by pressing the advantage at this time. The best and simplest method to take advantage of these streaks is called “following the shoe”. This simply means that you bet on the side that won the previous hand. If the Bank won the last time, you bet the Bank. Using this system, you will never miss a streak.

But baccarat is not for the faint-hearted. The following systems are not recommended for those with limited funds, because they force a player to “chase his money” – that is, to double up after a losing bet to re-capture his losses. But these are some of the reasons big gamblers like baccarat.

A MARTYR TO MARTINGALE
He looks a little bit like W C Fields, with a bulbous nose and bulging stomach. George seems more interested in entertaining the supervisors, dealers and players than in playing the game. But everyone knows that he is deadly serious about baccarat. His system has won him money almost daily, though sometimes it is an uphill battle.

It is a simple system, based on the theory that the Bank hand will not go for very long untill it wins two in a row. George will bet his minimum unit – in his case, £50 after a Bank win. He is hoping for a repeat. If he wins, he will pull all his money off and wait until a Player win interrupts the Bank cycle: He will then make another £50 bet after the next Bank win. If he loses that bet, he will again wait for the Player interuption and double his bet after the next Bank win. He will continue to double his bet until the Bank does repeat.

The casinos have table maximums to prevent this type of system, but George rarely has to go that far. This time, however, George is in trouble. He has reached the point where he cannot double his bet because of the table maximum. He is forced to bet in reduced units that will require two or three separate wins, before he gets even. His friendly and casual conversation disappears until he finally wins the last bet, when he decides to take a break, obviously relieved.

THE STATISTICIAN
Mickey is a bit more analytical than George, though his personality is even larger. Each time he plays, he is accompanied by different young ladies who appear to be a third of his age. His outlandish style of play makes him the centre of attention.

He has kept all of his baccarat scorecards since he began playing, years ago. Using a computer to help him diagnose trends, he has determined the odds on lengthy streaks, discovering that long streaks mean equally long odds. To get the jump on the shoe, Mickey will make large bets – £300 to £1,000 – on runs of two and three hands in a row. He will then begin to decrease his bets, knowing that the longer the streak lasts, the less chance it has of continuing.

Unfortunately, Mickey did not have the discipline needed to stick to his system. He was more interested in impressing his lady friends than turning a profit. Today, Mickey has depleted his once-impressive funds and is but a shell of his former self.

SYSTEM SUCCESS
The systems mentioned above are but a few of many methods developed for baccarat. Since baccarat is one of the oldest, most established of the casino games, it has been thoroughly analyzed and dissected. If a foolproof system had ever been developed, outside of cheating, the casinos would have figured out a way to stop it.

Systems are methods designed to improve your chances of winning. Most systems require an established fund that depends upon table minimums and the player’s wallet. Discipline is as imprtant as money, however. But the key ingredient in any casino decision is the enjoyment of the player. The best system for one player may not work for another. If you’re comfortable with the system, it works for you!

Lucky coin, anyone?

Lack of education
Many players learn how to play the game from other players. They pick up bad habits and get misinfomred about the chances of winning.

Playing the slow death
One of the most common mistakes made by players is to play what casinos call the "slow death". These players do not understand the concept of the house advantage.

This tends to happen a lot with bets on the dozens. A player will typically bet on all three dozens on one spin. Because they get paid out they think they are winning. They don’t understand that they are only breaking even. Then zero comes up and they loose all their chips. Even then they still don’t understand that they can’t possibly win. Such players continue playing until they eventually run out of chips. 

Other players opt for a faster form of the slow death. They put a chip on each number and are delighted when they win and get paid. They fail to notice that they are actually losing until they run out of chips.

Relying on the law of averages
Many players rely on the law of averages – that in the long run all numbers will be spun an equal amount of times. However, the law of averages is a fallacy. Consider the tossing of a coin. If a coin lands on heads on the first toss does this mean the second toss will be tails? The answer is possibly since there is a 50 per cent chance that it could land on either side. Suppose you tossed the coin 100 times. What result would you expect? According to the law of averages, it would be 50 times heads and 50 times tails because in the long run it would even out. But just because there is a 50 per cent chance of something happening, it doesn’t mean it will happen 50 per cent of the time. The coin does not know what the previous result was. Each subsequent toss is totally unrelated to the previous toss. There is actually no reason why you couldn’t throw 100 heads or 100 tails in a row.

With roulette some players bet on numbers that have failed to appear because the law of averages says that they should eventually be spun. However, it has been known for some numbers not to appear at certain tables for weeks. The roulette wheel has no memory. By waiting for one particular number that has not appeared for a while, you can easily lose a lot of money.

Belief in systems
Many players want to win but are prepared to put very little effort into ensuring that they do win. Many are looking for a quick easy system that is not complicated. This is why they get seduced into playing one of the common systems like the martingale. With these types of system, it is also easy to lose. A system may appear to work over a short time span but this often has more to due with luck.

The martingale
One of the most popular systems is the martingale. This involves doubling the stakes on losing bets and continuing to play until you have a winner. It is commonly used to play on the outside bets (red, black, even, odd, high or low). The way that it works is that the player makes a bet on, for example, red. If this bet loses the stake is then doubled on the next spin. If this wins then the player has won one chip and has recouped his losses on the previous bet. The problem with this system is that the table limit is soon reached, making it impossible to continue to double up. It also requires players to have a large bankroll to make large bets. The reason that so many players think it works is that they try it out and win. However, their win is not due to the system, it is simply due to luck.

How so?
Suppose a table has a minimum bet of £10 and a maximum of £1000. The first bet is £10 on red. If this loses, the next bet is £20. If the player continues to lose, the bets need to be increased to £40, £80, £160, £320, £640. Now the system will fail as the table maximum is £1000 and the player needs to bet £1280 to recoup his losses. This means that a succession of seven black numbers has caused the system to fail. The player has now spent £1270 with no prospect of recouping losses.

Not knowing when to quit
Not knowing when to quit is a huge problem. It is extremely common for players to have big wins but to end up losing all their winnings. It is often due to the player trying to recoup losses by making bigger bets.

House advantage
With single-zero roulette the odds paid for a bet on en plein (one number) are 35/1. However, the true odds are 36/1. So, for each spin the casino has one number working in its favour. The house advantage is 2.7 per cent of the stakes, that is, for every £37 that you bet, the casino is raking off £1.
The casino comes off even better if the player bets on a roulette wheel with two zeros. Now there are 38 numbers but the odds paid are the same for a winning number (35/1). If a player bets a chip on every number, the casino wins two chips on every spin. By adding an extra zero, the casino effectively doubles its profits.

Straight up (en plein)
A bet on anyone of the numbers from 0 to 36, including zero and double zero. The chip should be placed directly on top of the desired number on the layout. It wins only if that number is spun. Odds paid are 35/1.

Split (cheval)
A bet on two adjacent numbers on the layout. The bet is placed on the centre of the line between the two numbers. It wins if either of the two numbers is spun. Odds paid are 17/1.

Street (transversa le plein)
A bet on three adjacent numbers across the layout. It wins if any of the three numbers is spun. Odds paid are 11/1. The bet is placed on the double line between the numbers and the dozens.

Corner (carre)
A bet on four adjacent numbers on the layout. The chip is placed on the cross section of the line where the four numbers meet. It wins if any of the four numbers is spun. Odds paid are 8/1.

First four
This is also a bet on four numbers. The first four is a bet on the numbers 0, 1, 2, and 3. It can cause some confusion because of its name. Despite its name it loses if number four is spun. It is placed on the corner of the layout where numbers one and zero and the first dozen meet. It wins if any of the four numbers 0, 1, 2 or 3 wins. Odds of 8/1 are paid.

First five
This bet can only be played on roulette with two zeros and is a bet the five numbers 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. Despite its name, again, it loses if the numbers four or five are spun. It is placed on the lines where zero, double zero and two meet. Odds paid are 6/1. This bet is best avoided as it is the least profitable from a player’s point of view. It gives it the casino a house advantage of 7.89 per cent – much higher than the other bets on double-zero roulette, which give a house advantage of 5.26 per cent.

Quatro
Some betting layouts incorporate bets on a quarter of the numbers. The first quarter is the numbers 1-9 inclusive, the second is the numbers 10-18 inclusive, the third is the numbers 19-27 and the fourth is the numbers 28-36. Bets are placed in the appropriate box. Odds paid are 3 to 1. Bets lose if zero is spun.

Dozen
A bet on a group of 12 consecutive numbers. There are three dozens. Numbers 1-12, 13-24 and 25-36 inclusive. Bets are placed in the appropriate box. The bet wins if any of the 12 numbers is spun. Odds paid are 2/1. All bets on the dozens lose if zero is spun.

Column
A bet on a group of 12 numbers running in a column along the table. There are three columns. Bets are placed in the box at the base of the column. The bet wins if any number in the column is spun. Odds paid are 2/1. All bets on the columns lose if zero is spun.

Low
This is a bet on the low numbers on the wheel. It will win if any of the numbers 1 to 18 inclusive is spun.

High
This is a bet on the high numbers on the wheel. It will win if any of the numbers 19 to 36 inclusive is spun.
 
Red
Thisis a bet on the numbers coloured red on the wheel It will win if any of the red numbers is spun.

Black
This is a bet on the numbers coloured black on the wheel. It will win is any of the black numbers is spun.

Even
This is a bet on the even numbers on the wheel. It will win if any of the even numbers is spun.

Odd
This is a bet on the odd numbers on the wheel. It will win if any of the odd numbers is spun.

European Roulette

European roulette uses a single-zero wheel. The numbers 0 to 36 are arranged around the wheel on numbered compartments. Each number is coloured. Zero is green and the other numbers are either red or black. American roulette uses a wheel with two zeros – zero and double zero. The ball is spun in the opposite direction to that of the wheel. As the ball loses momentum it slows down and eventually drops into one of the numbered slots.

American roulette

American roulette uses a wheel with two zeros. The numbers are arranged so that consecutive numbers are on opposite sides of the wheel. For example, number 1 is opposite number 2. On one side of the layout, there is a double line between the outside bets and the numbers. This double line denotes where street and double street bets should be placed.

Looking through the small ads of publications will often turn up a number of advertisements for betting systems. There are lots of different systems and they often guarantee excellent returns.

Do they work? The sellers of such systems will tell you they do. Friends will boast that they have invented the ultimate system that never fails. Throughout the years many systems have been invented, some more successful than others.

Ignore all claims that are made about a system. To test how effective it is try it out yourself on a dummy run. Don’t bet any money. Make a note of results over a period of time and apply the system to those results. If it gives good returns, try it  out with small stakes. Continue to monitor results. If it starts failing, give
up on it and try something else.
 

Developing your own systems for selecting horses
Try to develop your own systems for selecting horses to bet on. You will need to take account of all the influencing factors mentioned. Some are more important than others but all play a part. One method is to award points for each factor. Most importance should be placed on the speed of a horse, with points added for factors that have a positive influence and points deducted for those that have a negative influence.

Doubling up on the favourite
Some systems involve no assessment of the runners. A popular system is doubling up on the favourite. Here, a bet is placed on the favourite in the first race. If that loses, the stake is doubled and placed on the favourite in the second race. This continues until there is a winner and the gambler stops betting.

This system falls down in several ways. The capital required to make it work can be huge. It may be some time before a favourite wins (they lose around 60 per cent of their races). If the favourite is a very low price (below 6/5) you will not recoup your outlay. There is always the danger that a horse could be withdrawn. This could bring the price of the favourite below the level that you need to break even. The potential rewards are also low.

Example
•    First race £10 bet stake = £10.90. Total loss £10.90.
•    Second race £20 bet stake = £21.80. Total loss £32.70,
•    Third race £40 bet stake = £43.60. Total loss £76.30.
•    Fourth race £80 bet stake = £87.20. Total outlay £163.50.

In the fourth race the favourite wins at 1/2. Returns = £120. Total loss = £43.50.
If the favourite had won at 2/1, returns = £240. Total winnings = £76.50.

However, there is no guarantee that the favourite would win by the fourth race. If your stake becomes too high, a bookmaker may refuse your bet. You may also run out of capital before a favourite wins.

During the last few minutes before a race, prices can change drastically. Instead of there being just one favourite, a situation can arise where there are joint or even co-favourites. Where you just back the favourite without specifying the name of the horse, your winnings will be greatly reduced if the race is won by a joint or co-favourite. In a situation where there are co-favourites of four, your winnings would only amount to one-quarter of what you had expected. Since the prices of the favourites are low, you are unlikely to recoup your outlay.

Some people apply the system to second favourites because their prices are higher. The problem here is that second favourites win even fewer races than favourites, so the capital needed is greater.

With this system, you are also making no assessment of the runners. By properly considering the chances of each horse, you may discover that another horse is more likely to win the race.

Betting on horses that have travelled a long distance to race
The logic of this is that a trainer wouldn’t travel several hundred miles if the horse didn’t stand a good chance of winning. The problem with this system is that there may be an equally good horse in the race that has only travelled a short distance. Horses do travel all over the world. British horses are taken to America and France. However, this doesn’t mean that they are guaranteed to win.

Betting on horses that have an advantage on the draw
With a lot of British racecourses, the draw can have an effect on the race. Horses starting in certain positions in the stalls have an advantage over others. By combining your assessment of horses with this knowledge, it is possible to select several horses that have a good chance of winning. Instead of backing the horses to win, bets of combination tricasts are placed.

A tricast is predicting which horses will finish first, second and third in the correct order. For a small outlay, the returns are potentially huge.

A particularly good time of the year to play this bet is in the summer months when the ground has dried out and the form is starting to show through. At this time of year it is much easier  to assess the horses. You do not have to worry quite so much about the going and you have lots of previous races on which to make your Judgement.

In the 1980’s bookmakers started to lose a lot of money through this system. Many were also offering huge bonuses of around 20 per cent on correct tricasts, which increased their losses. They are now extremely cautious about accepting bets on combination tricasts, particularly where the stakes are large. In order to get your bet accepted, you may need to spread it around several bookmakers.

Effect of the draw at British and Irish racecourses

 

Price
Look for horses that offer good value prices. Finding 10/1 winners will give you bigger profits than odds-on horses.

A lot of information is given by the race cards printed in newspapers or programmes. The format varies depending on the publication. To save space many abbreviations are used.

Example race card

Learn about horse racing
Become knowledgeable about horse racing. Read as many publications as possible. Ensure that you have a thorough understanding of the subject. Keep up to date with the latest news by reading a good-quality racing newspaper. The more information you have, the better able you are to assess a horse’s chance of winning.
Keep your own records on the horses you are interested in. Use a diary to record events as they happen. You may notice something that others have missed.

Tipsters
Studying all these factors takes an enormous amount of time. If you lack the time to do it yourself there are other people who have already done all the hard work. They are the tipsters employed by the newspapers. They select the likely prospects that they think will win. There are also telephone and internet tipping services that charge for information.

However you don’t always know what system they’re using to assess the horses and how good that system is. They may have missed an important factor that you may have noticed. The newspapers boast when their tipsters get it right but keep quiet when they don’t – after all, they are in the business of selling newspapers. Over the course of the year tipsters are bound to get it wrong too.

Record predictors
The record for predicting the most winners in one day is held by Charles Lamb, racing correspondent for the Balttmoroe News American. In 1974 he picked out 10 winners at a meeting held at Delaware Park. Bob Butcher of the Daily Mirror correctly forecast seven winners for a meeting at Wolverhampton. So, too, did Fred Shawcross at a York meeting in 1988. 

Because horse racing is unpredictable, things can and do go wrong. All the studying in the world cannot guard against them.

Horses can have off-days too
Horses can be unpredictable. Even the most well-behaved horses can have off-days. If they don’t want to cooperate with a jockey they will:

•    dig their heels in and refuse to run
•    not go into the starting stall
•    refuse to jump fences
•    attempt to throw the jockey.

You may know in advance that a horse has a reputation for being difficult, so it’s best to avoid betting on it. Save your money for the runners you are certain of.

Other horses
It is common for horses to bring down others at jumps. A horse may be the best jumper in the world but if another horse gets in its way, it can easily fall. Loose horses can cause all sorts of problems. They can box in your selection, bump into it or run across its path, all of which can cause a horse to lose a race.

Weights
Weights can and do occasionally fall off in the course of a race. Jockeys also sometimes forget to weigh in after a race. Either of these situations results in disqualification.

False starts
A false start can ruin a horse’s chance of winning – he may have run half of the race before being recalled. However, safeguards have been put in place to prevent a repeat performance of the 1993 British Grand National fiasco when several horses completed the course after a false start.

Other factors
Jockeys do occasionally take the wrong course. Horses can also escape from the jockey before the race. This can result in their being withdrawn from the race, particularly if they have used up a lot of energy running all over the course. Although you wlll have your stake refunded (unless, you’ve bet ante-post) if that horse is your selection, It can mean your hard work has been wasted, Alternatively, if your horse is still running, it can mean that adjustments to the bettmg make your bet unprofitable (if, for example, you have bet each way).

Although these incidents happen infrequently, you should bear them in mind as possibilities. It’s tempting to stake a lot of money on a horse when you think it can’t fail to win. By keeping your stakes to a reasonable level on each race, you will minimize your losses when these events do occur.

Experience of the runners
Races in which the horses have never run before are notoriously difficult to pick the winners. The problem with betting on them is that you have no previous form on which to base your assessment. This is where the pedigree of the horse needs to be studied. You can glean the horse’s potential by studying the racing records of its parents, the dam and sire. A much clearer indication can be achieved by going back several generations. They may also have produced other offspring that have already run that gives you more information on which to base your selection. The trainer, jockey and owner will also play a role in your selection.

A horse’s experience can be particularly important over jumps. An inexperienced horse that has only recently been trained to jump is more likely to fall than one with more experience.

Flat races where the horses must start in stalls can cause problems. Experienced horses are more used to the stalls and less likely to be nervous. A nervous horse can easily injure itself and or the jockey in the stalls or simply refuse to race once it has been let out. You will also know of experienced horses that are nervous in the stalls.
Although an older horse has more experience, it may also be less fit than its rivals. You will need to decide at what stage the age of a horse becomes a negative factor. This is not always easy as some horses do have exceptional records even at an old age. Red Rum was 12 years old when he won his third Grand National. In 1980 Sonny Somers won two steeplechases at the age of 18. The record for the oldest horse ever to win a race is held by Marksman, a horse that won a flat race at Ashford in 1826 aged 28 years old.

Condition of the ground (‘the going’)
The condition of the ground on the racecourse is called the going. Before the start of racing the clerk of the course will inspect the condition of the ground and declare the going. The going is classified from the fastest to the slowest conditions as follows:

Since the courses do not drain evenly there may be patches of ground where the going differs from the rest of the course. For example, you may see the going quoted as good (good to firm patches)’. In order to get more consistent ground some tracks are watered. On all-weather tracks where the racing surface is made of fibre-sand, the going is fairly consistent and is quoted as standard.

The condition of the ground may affect how well a horse runs. For example, some run well on heavy ground, while others run poorly. You will have to ask yourself if the ground suits your selection. A horse may have won its last race on hard ground but if its next race is on heavy ground, you will need to assess what impact this change will have. By going back through the records you can see how well a horse performed on particular ground. If you attend a race meeting, you will be able to inspect the ground yourself and draw your own conclusions about how it will affect the horses.

A good time for betting can be towards the end of the flat season when the ground has usually dried out. This removes one of the unknown factors. Also by this stage the performance of the horses is known. This is traditionally a time of year when bookmakers start losing money.
 

Weather conditions
Always take note of the weather forecast. If it is expected to rain, bear in mind that the going may change. Ground that started out as good can easily become heavy after a huge downpour. Some horses fare better than others depending on weather conditions. Hot weather has a more adverse effect on bigger horses than it does on small ones.

The course
In the United States, the racetracks are of less importance, as they are mostly the same oval-shaped dirt tracks. In Great Britain, where the courses are all different, this can have an effect on how well a horse runs. Some courses have left-hand bends and others right. Some are flat. Others have slight inclines and some steep hills.

You will need to consider how the racecourse is going to affect a horse. The horse you select may have a preference for right-hand turns; therefore, you will need to assess the impact of a course with left-hand turns. A horse may run well on a flat course, but how is a hill going to affect his performance?

Starting stalls are used in flat racing to ensure that each horse starts at precisely the same time. The draw is the position in which the horse starts in the stalls – not to be confused with its race card number. At a lot of racecourses there are advantages to starting in certain positions in the stalls.

Blinkers
Some horses are distracted by other horses and do not run well. Blinkers are an aid that allow a horse to see only in front of it; the other runners are excluded from its field of vision. If a horse is wearing blinkers for the first time, it is possible for there to be a marked improvement in its running.

Condition of the horse
In the course of racing and training horses may get injured. Nowadays, veterinary care is of the highest quality with excellent treatment available. The effect of an injury on a horse’s future performance can be negligible. However, some horses may have recurrent injury problems that can make their performance unreliable. Keeping up to date with all the news will highlight any horses that are not entirely fit. Be wary of horses that are running after a long absence as they may have been injured or ill. They may have previously had good form but the impact of an injury or illness will need to be assessed.

Pregnancy (in foal) can be a big advantage to a horse. This is due to an increase in red blood cells, which allows more oxygen to be carried to the muscles and increases their efficiency, meaning a horse can run much faster.

The owner
The owner of a horse can also be included in your assessment, Some owners have particularly good reputations for spotting and buying good quality horses with the potential to win races, Your knowledge about owners can also help with the selection of horses on their first outings. If a particular owner has a good record of winners, a horse on its first outing entered in a race by him may have a better chance of winning than novices of other owners.

The trainer
All trainers are different. They employ a variety of methods for training horses – some are better than others. Some trainers also have good reputations for bringing out the very best in a horse. You will need to keep up to date with the latest news to discover which trainers are producing winners. Another important factor is a change of trainer. A better trainer may improve the performance of a horse.

The jockey
Avoid unproven jockeys. Over shorter distances the jockey is less crucial. With longer distances, experienced jockeys will generally fare better as tactics play a part in the outcome. They will be better at pacing a race and keeping out of trouble. Stick to experienced jockeys over the jumps. An inexperienced jockey is more likely to fall off or pull up.

Keep up to date with jockey changes. A jockey may become ill or injured resulting in a horse having a different rider. The replacement may be better or worse so you will need to review your selection.

Number of runners
If you are making place or each-way bets keep up to date with the number of runners. A bet may not be worthwhile if you only get 1/5 odds instead of 1/4. A rule 4 deduction can also impact your bet.

Pedigree
For all racehorses it is possible to trace back their pedigrees for hundreds of years. A good pedigree is an indication of a potentially good horse but not always. Horses are carefully bred to bring out characteristics that make good runners. Horses with good racing records are sent to stud in order to try to bring out those characteristics in future generations. However, due to the nature of genetics, the breeding of these characteristics is not always an exact science. A dam and sire with good racing records do not always produce fast offspring. Often the characteristics that make a good runner can skip generations.

One characteristic that has been shown to have a positive affect on the performance of horses is a large heart. Although this characteristic may be present in the sire it may not show up in his immediate offspring, only to reappear in later generations.

This can mean that a horse that may have had a poor racing record can sire fast offspring. This makes the study of pedigree an inexact method of finding winners. It tends to be used as a tool for finding winners where the horses have not run before.

Previous performance of the runners
Due to the unpredictability of breeding, a great deal of importance is placed on the previous performance of horses. Once the horse has actually run, you have a clearer indication of its potential. You will have information available about how the horses have performed in previous races. This is called form. Different racing publications publish this information in different formats. To cut down on space, abbreviations are used and each publication will give a key explaining them. As a general rule, the more detailed the information, the more you have to pay for it. You will therefore need to decide for yourself how important you feel the information is. The sorts of detail that are given are the results of previous races, the jockey, trainer, weight carried and a guide to the betting. When the horse has not run in many races in the current season, its performance for the previous season will be given.

Try to watch as many races as possible. The written data do not always show why a horse performed poorly. The jockey may have been at fault. He may have waited too long before pushing a horse. A horse may sprint quickly at the end of the race but if the jockey left it too late to push or was boxed in by other horses, it may still lose. A better jockey next time out may compensate.

Some horses may have an easy win, with the jockeys not having to use the Whip or, alternatIvely, easing down near the finish. Other horses may win but under pressure from the jockey. A poorer jockey next tIme out may mean it loses. A horse could fall at a difficult fence. If the fences are easier in its next race the horse may not be so unfortunate. A horse may lose a race over the jumps because it is brought down by a loose horse or slips on wet ground. With better running conditions, it may win its next race. With sprinting races, a horse may get off to a bad start. The next race may be better.

At the beginning of the season you will not have a lot of information on which to base your selection. As the season progresses, you will have a much better indication of how the horses are performing. Towards the end of the season, you will have many more consistent data on which to base your decisions. For this reason, you should bet cautiously at the begmmng of the season and gradually increase stakes as the season progresses and you are more confident of your selections.

Speed of the horse
The speed that a horse can run is by far the clearest indication of how likely a horse is to win. No matter how good the jockey, the trainer or the condition of the ground, if a horse is not fast it is unlikely to win. Assessing the speed is not a simple matter. Factors like the amount of weight carried and the going all affect a horse’s speed.

Timeform offer the most comprehensive records of the speed of horses. They produce a daily newspaper and separate books giving details of flat racing and national hunt statistics. For anyone seriously assessing a horse’s chances of winning, this information is invaluable. You can, of course, accumulate the information yourself if you are prepared to commit the time it takes to gather data.

Harness racing
The United States Trotting Association keeps records of the fastest race a horse wins each year. Abbreviations are used to cut down on space. With harness racing, the comparison of the runners is made much easier as most races are run over a mile.

Example: p,3,Q1:58.1 ($100,000)
p – the horse gait p = pace, no letter = trot
3 – age of the horse, here it was a 3 year old
Q – the type of race. Q = qualifying race, T = time trial, no letter = during a race
1 :58.1 – the time taken to run one mile, in this case one minute and 58.1 seconds
the length of the track – f = 5/8 mile, s = 7/8 mile, h = 1/2 mile, no letter = 1 mile
($100,000) – the amount of money won by the horse in its career

The race
You don’t have to bet on every race. Save your money for the races that offer the best prospects. It takes time to assess all the runners so concentrate on a few races each day. Certain races can be dismissed as it too difficult to predict the outcome. It is better to select races where you have a clear indication of a horse’s performance. Avoid selling races, claiming races, maiden handicaps, apprentice races and amateur races. With the higher class races you will have a lot more information on which to base your decision. Clips of the horses’ previous races run will be shown by the racing media and a lot more information will be written over these horses in horse racing publications.

Distance of the race
Most horses have an optimum distance over which they perform well. Some are excellent sprinters while others have stamina to cope with longer distances. If a horse is entered for a distance that it has never run before, its previous performance can provide some indication as to how well it will fare. Has the horse run shorter distances and won easily? Or has it run longer distances but lacked stamina and faded at the end? If you watch lots of racing you will notice these factors.
 

Change of class
The grade of race may have an effect on its outcome. If a horse performs particularly well in, for example, a Class 2 race, it may be entered for a Class 1 race. Since Class 1 races attract the best horses, it will be up against much stronger opposition than in its previous race. Avoid betting on horses that have moved up a class. Wait for them to prove themselves in their new class. It is also possible for horses to drop down a grade so a horse that has previously run in a Class 1 race may compete in a Class 2 race. The horse may have performed badly in the Class 1 race but the change of class may lead to a huge improvement. The form guides in newspapers give details of which horses are running in different classes.